STRATEGIES IN LOW-RISK BETTING

Strategies in betting

Strategies in betting (gambling) can be divided into two categories:

– High risk: high return

– Low risk: low return

The idea is to take the gamble only when the expected value of winning is bigger than losing. So, if you stake 100 euro and get back 110 euro (high risk), you make a 10 Euro profit (or loss). If you bet 100 euro and get back 90 euro (low risk), you have lost money instead. You have to take a lot more bets at “low risk” in order to win 10 Euro then taking one big stake at “high risk”. Another example: if in a day you gamble three times, in each time risking 1/3 of your account balance, in the “high risk” scenario you lose the first bet, win with the second and third (in total winning 2/3 of your bets) and in the “low risk” scenario you lose all 3 bets. The “low risk” has a lower average outcome then high risk. Also, choose a reliable bookmaker like N1 Bet login.

Low-risk betting

The strategy is (for practical reasons):

– Bet in such a way that your losses will be limited to -10% of your bankroll for each gamble. So, if you have 100 euro bankroll, don’t bet more than 10 euro at once. In case you get unlucky and lose it all, wait one day before starting again with 100 euro bankroll. This way you can play for a long time without ever loosing too much money.

In practical terms, this means that you have to increase your bankroll faster than the rate at which it decreases. For example, if you go on a run of bets where you lose 10%, your bankroll will decrease by 1% so you have to win 11%. Often, however, this is not possible and once in a while, you will lose more than 10%, bringing your average return down. This is the risk of gambling: sometimes you lose a lot of money fast. This can be a problem for those who don’t manage their money well or those with addictive personalities (lack of patience).

The idea behind low-risk betting is that eventually, given enough time and opportunity, people always come out ahead as long as they don’t bet more than 10% of their money on one bet. This is because there’s always a slight edge (a winning percentage) in favour of the person betting, but it is so small compared to all bets made that the average outcome over time comes out slightly ahead for people who stake low-risk.

These strategies work best with proper control of bankroll. You can make money by playing high-risk games like blackjack or roulette where you can increase your profit by using basic strategy and card counting, but this article will deal only with sports betting appropriate for the person who doesn’t want to study too much but still wants to earn some extra cash from his bookie. It assumes the reader has no knowledge about football or how to gamble on it.

The system is based on the idea that people who aren’t real fans of football will bet against their national team because they don’t appreciate these teams as much as local fans do and thus are more likely to be objective in assessing relative strength between two or more teams. The same thing applies to individuals who live in countries where ‘their’ team is not successful (or doesn’t exist at all). If you know anything about betting, you probably already guessed what’s the winning strategy: Betting on a team from a nation that has many supporters but not too many top-class players = a low-risk gamble.

Betting against a country with lots of good players but few dedicated followers = a high-risk gamble.

How does this strategy work?

How is that? It’s simple: If you bet on a team from a country where the league has few fans, most likely they won’t win. Why? Because for many teams in such countries there is no financial incentive to win games and tournaments. Therefore their prayers don’t train as hard as the players of clubs from bigger nations.

There are more factors to consider but we can simplify this idea by saying: The less popular your national league is, the higher the chance of betting against your national team. This rule is also called ‘the home field advantage effect’ (because fans usually push their team forward thus making them play better).

Another thing people tend to do is underestimate or overestimate opponents based on recent results. For example, a team that has been performing poorly lately will be underestimated and the bookies’ odds will be below for them.

The bottom line

To summarise: Bet on a favourite from a country with lots of fans but not too many good players. The more popular your country’s league is, the higher the crapshoot of betting on your national team. Since results don’t mean much when it comes to long-term chances of winning, you should look at other factors such as average player salary, league popularity and calibre of opponents. This doesn’t guarantee a profit but reduces risk to 10%, which makes it suitable for all people who want to bet without studying too much or taking big risks.

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